Vegas XIX ESPN Ranking Reaction
/There are few things in life as meaningless as ESPN’s pre-season rankings and this year, I’m not seeing any mention of IBM’s Watson. I’m not sure if that makes things better or worse. Let’s see where we think the algorithm got things wrong.
1. The Gentleman in the Corner (Mendo Rank - 4th)
What Went Right: To start the season, there’s no hole in the starting lineup. Having Bijan in the RB slot with Kenneth Walker and James Conner in the flex - potentially, the league’s best RB trio - cures a lot of issues. Garrett Wilson and Jerry Jeudy might not get many touchdowns but they both should be target monsters and safe bets for 1000 yards. Jauan Jennings and Cooper Kupp should be solid backups. George Kittle led TE’s with 13.4 points a game last year and I’ve got three of ESPN’s top 20 defenders.
How It Goes Wrong: None of my proposed starters are on Top 10 offensive teams. James Conner and Kenneth Walker aren’t exactly iron men. Flacco is old and Fields is basically a running back; if they go down, Dillon Gabriel and Tyrod Taylor probably destroy the hopes of the cheaper WRs holding down the starting spots. My receivers could also help me maintain my reputation of poor roster decisions. My ESPN ranking could very easily go from first to worst in no time (and now it probably will since I have the Curse of the First Place Ranking.)
For me, the schedule is a bit of a wash; I won the Week 8 vs. Mark sweepstakes and should have an easy win but the team I face twice is Bernie, who I have ranked much higher than ESPN’s dead last.
2. Thee Gospel (Mendo Rank: 1)
What Went Right: Some things never change. At the end of every draft, I’m pretty sure that Brendan a) has a great team and b) probably hates me. 2025 - same as it ever was. Brendan’s starting WRs and IDP players are all projected to finish in the top ten of their position. James Cook is still the lead back in what should be the best offense in the league and - as Brendan noted during the draft - the Dak/CeeDee stack is likely busy all season as the Cowboys have a terrible defense. Brian Thomas Jr. should also find himself playing mostly throwing downs in the second half of the vast majority of games this year. According to ESPN, facing Justin twice is a boon for Brendan but I don’t have Justin ranked that low. I think it’s a wash.
How It Goes Wrong: According to the Ringer, Brendan’s studs - Lamb, Thomas, and Cook all face “Brutal” schedules so perhaps that lowers their ceilings. James Cook is due for TD regression (although I think, at worst, he dips down to 9 or 10; I can’t see him going all the way back to 2 TDs, which he had in his first couple of years.) Alvin Kamara should hold down one flex spot - as long as he’s healthy - but the second spot is a complete dart throw. Najee Harris, Marvin Mims, Rashid Shaheed, or the Jays (Higgins/Reed) are all capable of delivering a big week but it’s probably easier to time the stock market than to figure out which week they’ll go off.
All of that being said, Brendan’s team is my pick to take the points title again this year.
3. One Shady Motha (Mendo Rank: 10)
What Went Right: Andy gets to face Colin, my 14th ranked squad, twice this year which should give him a boost in the standings. They say Defense Wins Championships and he has ESPN’s #2, #3, and #7 ranked IDPs. J Jetta, The Riddler, and Jamo can all deliver huge games and if Pacheco can return to his 2023 form, the RB spot doesn’t seem so problematic. Not to mention that Andy’s loaded up on some of the top handcuffs in the league. Brock Bowers is likely TE1 again (and could demolish the Pats in week 1.)
How It Goes Wrong: Maye and Penix both face a sophomore swoon, throwing the QB spot into disarray. None of the RBs (Ford, Pacheco, Harvey, Allgeier, Shipley) elevate themselves and they end up in time shares and without goal line touches. It’s very possible that both Calvin and Jameson have more bust games than booms. If JJ McCarthy struggles, Justin Jefferson might not be able to carry this team to the playoffs.
4. The Fighting Borts (Mendo Rank: 13)
Proposed Name Change: The Fighting Bullshit Spices
How It Went Right: Mahomes and Nix are the best QB duo in the Vegas XIX league. ESPN ranks Derrick Henry and Jonathon Taylor as RBs 5 & 6. Amon-Ra is a top WR and I think Jaylen Waddle could take over as Miami’s top scoring receiver. If Michael Pittman goes back to being a WR1 in Indy, then this team is off to the races. And if Kenneth Walker gets injured, Eli takes over as the team with the best RB corps.
How It Goes Wrong: My forecast calls for a torrent of BULLSHITS! in Burbank this season.We’ll see how many weeks it takes for the Nix vs. Mahomes debate to drive Eli insane. Derrick Henry is 31 and is coming off of a massive workload last year and Jonathon Taylor is probably going to miss some games. Amon-Ra lost Ben Johnson, Jaylen Waddle has to deal with Zack Wilson should Tua get hurt. I think Danny Dimes is going to spread the ball around in Indy and, if not, my guess is that Josh Downs gets more looks than Pittman.
There’s not a lot of room for error with this team and I think it is very likely that Eli spends all season regretting allowing Bernie and Brendan to change the rules of RockBand which helped them win their battle and earn the right to come up with the last place challenge.
5. ShakeYourMooneyMaker (Mendo Rank: 2)
Proposed Name Change: TD Vance
How It Went Right: Like our Vice President, Jeff’s team is a heartbeat away from the big time but nobody is in any way excited to see that happen. It’s fitting that Jeff sang Creed in RockBand because his team is similar - nobody wants to admit it but they have a few bangers. The Josh Jacobs, Chuba Hubbard, and Aaron Jones trio is in the conversation as best RB grouping. Mike Evans and George Pickens are a solid WR duo. Jayden Daniels has more weapons to work with while Evan Engram is in the Joker slot in Sean Payton’s offense, which could mean a career year.
How It Goes Wrong: Unfortunately for Jeff, his roster is a bit like his dating profile - filled with red flags. The Commies face a tougher schedule that could have Daniels struggle a bit in Year 2. Jacobs crossed the 300 carry line last year so he could be worn down. Chuba’s success stemmed from getting 80% of the Panthers’ carries last year but they might dial that down for him. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason could be a weekly coin toss with Mason stealing TDs and Jones not getting enough yards to be truly effective in fantasy. At the WR spot, Jeff has 32 year old Mike Evans, headcase George Pickens, and Raider Jakobi Meyers. Old, crazy, and in Las Vegas is how I like my strippers but I’m not sure it’s a winning combo in fantasy football.
Still, I do think that Jeff’s a top contender and ESPN’s ranking might be his floor.
6. Uncle Rico’s Ruffnecks (Mendo Rank: 14)
How It Went Right: Colin went with the studs and scrubs approach and has himself arguably QB1, RB1, and TE2. Deebo and Xavier Worthy could hold down the WR spots. He’s got two nominal RB1s in Rhamondre and Javonte to eat up the flex spots with Adam Thielen and Chris Godwin as potential fill-in options.
How It Goes Wrong: After his three studs, Colin’s lineup has less talent than Chicas Bonitas’ at 4am on a Monday (Trust me on that one.) ESPN has his last pick, Tucker Kraft, starting in a Flex spot, which is never a good sign. Rhamondre and Javonte could be stuck in time shares or possibly lose their carries altogether. Xavier Worthy could lose his WR1 slot when Rashee Rice returns. Deebo might not have much left in the tank and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Godwin isn’t healthy and Thielen probably only has three good weeks in him before Jordan Addison returns and moves Adam to the fourth option on most route trees.
6th place is absolutely the ceiling for this team but I think the odds are better that, in Week 19, Colin is facing a last place punishment than a first round opponent.
7. Caviar Fake Titties (Mendo Rank: 11)
What Went Right: Joe Burrow’s going to have to throw a ton because Cincy’s defense is so bad. Ashton Jeanty could be the next great running back. Breece Hall has his haters but he also is operating behind one of the best lines in the NFL in a run heavy offense. David Montgomery is still the goal line back in one of the league’s highest scoring offenses. Ladd and Hill are bound to have some monster games and David Njoku’s Pro Bowl season came during Joe Flacco’s first tour of duty in Cleveland.
How It Goes Wrong: Cincy’s horrific offensive line gets Joe Burrow banged up early. The Raiders offense stalls and Jeanty doesn’t amass starting fantasy RB points. Braelon Allen could steal the RB1 spot from Breece Hall and Njoku could lose touches to rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. There isn’t really a steady option on the bench to help out should anyone go down with injury.
My ranking for Dana might be his team’s floor; I think he’s firmly in the Fighting for the Seventh Seed tier.
8. Essos Son Reebok o Nike (Mendo Rank: 9)
Proposed Name Change: Scrooge McWTF
First off, let’s thank Johnny for controlling his flatulence this year. I believe Bernie only had to angrily yell out “Who farted?!” once this draft.
How It Went Wrong: The only thing tighter than Johnny’s sphincter were his purse strings as he ended the draft with a whopping $39 dollars left over. That money left on the table will probably keep him out of the playoffs. His draft approach is one I’m familiar with - cast aside the big ticket items, stay laser-focused on value, and ride with a roster full of 4th or 5th tier guys. Something else I’m familiar with is mediocrity and, sadly, that’s where it seems Johnny’s team stands. Johnny’s team is basically like the Wu-Tang Clan - there’s talent but who knows if you can ever get them all to show up at the same time. None of the WR/RB/TE guys can really be counted on to deliver double-digits every week. And neither of his QBs are playing on Week 9.
How It Goes Right: Red flags aside, there is legit potential here. Tony Pollard and D’Andre Swift are lead backs in potentially ascendant offenses. The WR group boasts four #1 receivers and the much buzzed about Emeka Egbuka. Sam LaPorta came down to Earth after being the #1 TE in his rookie year but he was still the sixth ranked TE last season. This is the kind of team that, if it can sneak into the playoffs, could easily put together a crazy three game streak to win it all. I’m just not sure they’ll be able to get there, especially given Johnny’s penchant for facing the most Points Against in the league.
9. Sadat X (Mendo Rank: 3)
Proposed Name Change: Chase and the Children
Where It Went Wrong: Rumor has it that this year, Derek’s draft consultant was Ghislane Maxwell because he’s relying on six rookies and two second-year players. There’s a fine line between riding high on the Lolita Express and having a prison’s security cameras go offline for a “routine check” one evening. I’m not a believer in the Bryce Young/Cam Ward duo at QB. Rashee Rice should be a good #2 receiver for this team but I honestly have no clue what to expect from Chris Olave and Rome Odunze. His running backs could all get stuck in time shares.
How It Goes Right: Bucky, TreVeyon, and Kaleb Johnson could be a surprise contender for top RB trio. Cam Ward can prove that he was worthy of the #1 pick. Jamaar Chase repeats as the best player in fantasy and Rome Odunze blossoms in a real offense as opposed to whatever that was that Chicago ran last season. Derek’s team has the widest variance of finishes. I had him as a top team but I wouldn’t be stunned if the kids are only alright and they can’t muster enough points to get the team to the playoffs.
10. Double Dram-Ba-Ba-Bouie (Mendo Rank: 6)
Where It Went Wrong: Only a clone would walk out of the draft with four NFC East running backs and none of them named Saquon. < UPDATE: To make matters worse, Bill was just named FOURTH string running back for the Commies. Jayden Blue and Cam Skattebo are third stringers.> Jordan Addision and Brandon Aiyuk won’t be able to help until at least week 4 (and probably later for Aiyuk.) Keon Coleman probably shouldn’t be a Week 1 starter. There’s no ESPN love for Zay and Andrews, apparently.
How It Goes Right: The Lamar/Zay/Andrews stack is bound to have more good games than bad. The second flex spot is a concern but we all know that Rahul isn’t afraid to spend money to fix that issue via the waiver wire. Nico Collins & Jaxon Smith-Njigba could easily improve on their stellar seasons of last year and be one of the league’s best WR combos. Once Addison and Aiyuk return, Rahul might only need one of his RBs to emerge as a weekly starter and he’ll be a lock for the playoffs. This team is firmly on the playoff bubble IMO.
11. K-Kel Inc. (Mendo Rank: 8)
Where It Went Wrong: Defense is likely to blame for this low ranking. None of Brett’s IDPs are on the first page of ESPN’s rankings. To ESPN, there are at least 17 guys on the waiver wire who would be better than what Brett’s trotting out there. Jerome Baker doesn’t get listed until the 5th page! Outside of the defense, there’s just not a ton of upside here. There’s talk of the Rams limiting Kyren Williams’s workload and Brett doesn’t really have another viable RB option after him. Malik Nabers is already banged up. Kelce and Pitts are bound to be a frustrating duo.
How It Goes Right: Kyren continues to be a guy who “just gets touchdowns.” Russell Wilson dials down the hospital balls and proves to be better for Nabers than Danny Dimes last year. (And if the Giants ever turn to gunslingin’ Jameis Winston, Nabers could be WR1.) The Hurts/DeVonta stack wins a couple games on their own, Tee Higgins bounces back from last year’s injury-filled season, and Matthew Golden blossoms as the top receiver in Green Bay. I know the defense and bench are issues but I’m surprised by ESPN’s ranking because Brett’s “How It Goes Right” seem more likely to happen than anyone else’s.
12. The McBarge (Mendo Rank: 12)
How It Went Wrong: Lawrence/Love is the poor man’s version of Eli’s Mahomes/Nix conundrum. Puka is one injury - his own or Stafford’s - to not earning the money Mark spent on him. Marvin Harrison might have been the WR version of Trevor Lawrence - wildly overhyped in college. Omarion Hampton, by all accounts, is a beast but his OC Greg Roman is notorious for sticking with two running backs, even when one back is clearly better. ESPN’s not high on 2/3s of the defense.
How It Goes Right: Davante Adams proves to be a better complement to Puka than Kupp was and Nacua gets even more room to operate and stuff the stat sheet. And if Stafford gets hurt, Adams already hates Jimmy G. so that could help Puka get more action. Gibbs is elite and Mark could send more fireworks to Najee Harris to get Omarion the carries he deserves. Marvin and Ricky Pearsall have legitimate upside. Last time Hunter Henry was in a Josh McDaniels offense, he nabbed 9 touchdowns. I’m not sure if all of this is good enough to make Mark a contender but it should, at least, keep him away from the last place punishment.
13. Clay Says Shiit Shiiiiiiiiiiiit! (Mendo Rank: 7)
Proposed Name Change: No Championship For Old Men
How It Went Wrong: If you’re going to get Travis Hunter to play IDP, you have to make sure you have two flex options better or as good as him. Justin’s options for the last flex spot are: Rashod Bateman, Jake Ferguson, Blake Corum, and Trey Benson. No bueno unless my guy James Conner goes down (which is very possible.) Outside of that, Justin went with the reverse Derek and invested in veterans (who may be on the decline). McCaffrey, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and TJ Hockenson might not be what they once were and CMC now has a potential vulture in Brian Robinson Jr. while TJ Hockenson has the return of Adam Thielen to steal away some targets. Deebo Samuel could also steal some of Scary Terry’s thunder. I’m not sure if there are enough free agent dollars to buy a time machine, but that might be what is needed for this team to contend.
How It Goes Right: More and more athletes seem to be extending their careers so why not Justin’s guys? The Brock/McCaffrey stack should have some huge games against reportedly the easiest schedule in the NFL and it just takes one free agent find to shore up the second flex option. DK Metcalf, age be damned, is still probably the best player on the Steelers’ offense and should get a lot of red zone looks (assuming the offense can get there.) I’m not seeing a title contender here but ESPN’s 13th place ranking seems incredibly pessimistic.
14. Ktttssss!!! (Mendo Rank: 5)
Proposed Name Change: New Team, Who Distraught?
What Went Wrong: Bernie needs a lot of his guys to bounce back from last year but they all seem to be dealing with the same issues they had last season. CJ Stroud still has an awful offensive line and now he might have a worse running game to keep defenses from pinning their ears back. De’Von Achane is already banged up. Chase Brown is also dealing with a horrible offensive line. Davante Adams is a very likely Stafford injury away from being stuck with a QB he openly disliked in the past. Tyler Warren is a rookie in a offense that probably wants to spread it around (and has two not-so-great QBs.)
How It Goes Right: I had JUST talked myself into liking Bernie’s team when the ESPN rankings dropped so I am a little torn. Still, there’s a lot to like. CJ Stroud is going to have to air it out until Joe Mixon comes back (if he does come back.) The Miami offense is going to run the ball and Achane or Ollie Gordon Jr. are going to get their shots. There’s a world in which they are both playable some weeks. The new report out of Cincinnati is that the Bengals revamped their running game to fit Chase Brown’s skillset. When I first started thinking about fantasy football this year, Achane and Chase were my guys but I talked myself out of them so they’ll probably do great. Drake London is a potential WR1. Stafford doesn’t look at Puka in the red zone so Davante could be a TD magnet. Brian Robinson is a CMC injury away from being an impact player. Like many teams, Bernie is a second flex player (and good injury luck) away from locking down a playoff spot. But since I’m stuck playing Bernie twice this year, I’m hoping that doesn’t happen.